Military analysts warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin has already begun laying the groundwork for a wider conflict with NATO; a move some describe as the first stage of what could spiral into World War III.
According to The Sun, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow has entered “Phase Zero,” an “informational and psychological condition-setting phase” intended to destabilize the West through espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks, and covert military activity.
Analysts say the Kremlin’s actions mark a deliberate attempt to test NATO’s defenses and political unity. Former NATO planner and intelligence officer Philip Ingram told The Sun, “It’s almost certain the Russians are probing to see what a political reaction and a security reaction would be to these drone incursions.” He added that Putin “wants to find any cracks that he can then exploit in the future.”
Rising Fears of a Wider War
Eastern European officials fear that Russia’s hybrid tactics, including unmarked troops, drones, and cyberwarfare, are setting the stage for a confrontation that could draw NATO directly into conflict. “The writing is on the wall,” analysts told The Sun, noting that the Kremlin may launch new aggression “without waiting for its army to fully recover from the war in Ukraine.”
Observers warn that such a move could escalate faster than expected, raising fears of a direct NATO–Russia clash — a scenario many believe would trigger a third world war.
Armed Men on NATO’s Border
On October 10, Estonia, a NATO member state, closed a section of its border with Russia at the “Saatse Boot” after armed men in unmarked uniforms were spotted near the frontier. Estonian officials said the individuals were “definitely not border guards” and posed “a threat.”
Authorities acted quickly “to prevent escalation,” according to The Sun, describing the closure as a necessary measure to ensure civilian safety. The ISW identified this as the first confirmed sighting of Putin’s infamous “little green men” near a NATO border in this campaign, recalling the unmarked Russian forces used during the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Europe Faces Hybrid Attacks
Across Europe, incidents have mounted in what Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called “hybrid attacks.” Airports in Denmark, Poland, and Romania have reported drone incursions, while ransomware attacks temporarily crippled operations at Heathrow, Brussels, and Berlin airports.
“There is one main country that poses a threat to Europe’s security, and it is Russia,” Frederiksen said. Danish intelligence chief Finn Borch echoed that “the risk of Russian sabotage in Denmark is high.”
Security expert Anthony Glees told The Sun that “without doubt, the Russians are behind these attacks,” adding that Putin’s strategists “can attack our cyberspace with impunity and at will.”
Airspace Violations and Military Pressure
Russian military aircraft have repeatedly violated NATO airspace in recent weeks. The Sun reported that three MiG-31 jets armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles crossed into Estonian airspace for nearly 12 minutes before being repelled by NATO F-35s. Poland recorded 19 separate airspace violations within two weeks, including low flyovers near energy infrastructure.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned that NATO “shouldn’t hesitate” to shoot down Russian jets if such incidents continue. European diplomats privately cautioned Moscow that further violations “will be met with full force.”
In response, Russia’s ambassador to France, Alexey Meshkov, claimed Western aircraft have also breached Russian airspace, saying, “There are many NATO planes that violate Russian airspace… They are not shot down afterwards.”
A War of Shadows
The Institute for the Study of War and Western intelligence agencies believe Russia’s actions are part of a broader campaign to blur the line between peace and war. By operating through drones, hackers, cyberwarriors, and unmarked soldiers, the Kremlin avoids open confrontation while advancing its goals.
As The Sun concluded, NATO “may not yet be at war, but ‘Phase Zero’ has already begun.”
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